source<\/a><\/p>\nBy SUHAINI AZNAM<\/p>\n
In the aftermath of Hindraf, the Indian vote has become a question mark, especially in last election’s narrowly-won seats.<\/p>\n
THE Indian vote is the X factor in election 2008. It is crucial not because of its size, which averages at 7% per constituency, but because it forms the all-important deciding vote in many racially mixed seats in the peninsula.\u00a0 Indians are traditionally very loyal to the Barisan. This time, their loyalty is no longer certain.
\nNot a bad deal: At the gathering of MIC branch leaders, Najib reminded his audience that while Indians only made up 8% of the population, they doubled or trebled that in four esteemed professions namely medicine, dentistry, veterinary medicine and law.
\nNone of the existing nine Indian parliamentary seats and 19 state seats – considered Indian seats by virtue of the Barisan incumbent being from the MIC – are dominated by an Indian electorate. Even in MIC president Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu’s constituency of Sungai Siput, the racial mix is 36.5% Malay, 40.3% Chinese and only 22.6% Indian, with 0.6% others.<\/p>\n
Yet the Indian bloc is critical, especially in the advent of a three-cornered fight, said Dr Denison Jayasooria, executive director of the Yayasan Strategik Sosial. He noted that 62 out of 219 parliamentary seats and 135 out of 505 state seats had more than 10% Indian registered voters in 2004. The MIC has proudly delivered 100% of its parliamentary seats to the Barisan since the 1982 elections.<\/p>\n
Dr Jayasooria predicted that “the MIC should win these again even if with a reduced majority” but saw a tough fight in several state seats.
\n“The MIC on the ground will have to work very hard, going door-to-door,” he warned, pointing to Lunas in Kedah, Perai in Penang and Pasir Panjang in Perak as examples. His cautious optimism must be balanced with sterner warnings from the ground.<\/p>\n
Today, state party watchers up and down the west coast of the peninsula have signalled a changing equation resulting from shifting Indian sentiments and Malay reaction to an outpouring of Indian demands on Nov 25, when a few thousand took part in an illegal march under the aegis of the Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf).<\/p>\n
In Penang, seven to eight state seats are at risk for the Barisan. In Bagan Dalam, where the Indian population is 15.7%, the MIC assemblyman had won by only a 1,967 margin in 2004. Similarly Perai, where Indians are 13.4%, is going to be another close call, the MIC having won by only 583 votes last time.<\/p>\n
In Perak, Chinese seats where Indians form more than 20% of the voters is also worrying the Barisan. Pro-Opposition Chinese tend to vote the DAP. If a substantial portion of the 46.2% Indian votes in Buntong state seat under Ipoh Barat swings away, the 6.6% Malays and already divided 47% Chinese would not be sufficient to boost the MCA, which had won with only a 2,382 majority against the DAP in 2004. Another red flag is Jalong, in Sungai Siput, with a 56.8% Chinese electorate. In 2004, the 26.7% Indian voters had combined with the 16.2% Malays to give the Gerakan a 6,142 margin win in a three-cornered fight.<\/p>\n
The story repeats itself in Negri Sembilan. In 2004, Barisan slipped in with victory margins of under 2,000 in 11 mostly state seats. In Temiang state seat with 9% Indian voters, the MCA won by just 919 votes. In the Port Dickson state seat where Indians comprise 31% of the 12,000 voters, the MIC had won with just a 1,893 majority against the DAP.<\/p>\n
Earlier speculation was rife that MIC Wanita chief Datin Paduka P. Komala Devi would be dropped but now, with no one hankering after the Kapar seat, she is likely to be retained. “Before, everyone wanted the seat,” said a local journalist. “Now no one wants to touch it.”<\/p>\n
In Kota Raja, MIC Youth chief S.A. Vigneswaran won by a 8,239 majority in a seat where 15,677 or 27.6% of the voters are Indian. “If half of the Indians swing, he’s done for,” added the journalist.<\/p>\n
Hindraf’s demands have also raised heckles in Malay kampungs. In Kedah, for instance, it is not Hindraf’s pied piper effect on the 6% Indian voters that threatens the Barisan but the Malay refusal to vote for any Indian candidate, irrespective of which party they represent. Most MIC seats tend to be semi-urban. Nevertheless, the Malay animosity is so great that opposition parties which were only vaguely associated with the Hindraf march, such as PAS in Terengganu, still have to be cautious not to alienate their supporters.<\/p>\n
Thus Hindraf’s airing of Indian grouses seems to have backfired. Its Indian saga has garnered animosity instead of sympathy from its Malay neighbours.<\/p>\n
Act of conciliation<\/p>\n
And it is to the MIC, Umno’s fellow coalition partner and old ally in the Alliance, that the Umno-led Government has made conciliatory noises. To shore up the MIC’s credibility, the Government has promised to employ more Indians in the civil service, provide more scholarships and places to Indians entering public universities and increase micro-credit loans to Indian businessmen. In an immediate peace offering, it extended Selangor’s Thaipusam public holiday to Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya.<\/p>\n
Hindraf itself has made little headway in legitimising its own political aspirations. Five of its leaders were rounded up under the Internal Security Act.<\/p>\n
But it is the MIC that will have to bear the brunt of Indian bitterness.<\/p>\n
At a gathering of MIC branch leaders at the Putra World Trade Centre earlier this month (Feb 3), Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak reminded his audience that while Indians only made up 8% of the population, they doubled or trebled that in four esteemed professions: 26.6% of doctors; 18.4% of dentists; 24.8% of veterinarians and 24.1% of lawyers are Indian.\u00a0 Given those figures, they did not have such a bad deal after all, Najib pointed out.\u00a0 In highlighting the community’s success, Najib did not, however, delve into the problems of poor Tamils on estates, in urban squatter areas, their high dropout rate, unemployment, rising gangsterism and the demolition of temples. He did tell the MIC to reinvent itself to stay relevant to the community it represents.<\/p>\n
An already complicated picture becomes more complex when such vociferous anger is balanced against cooler voices in nationwide surveys.\u00a0<\/p>\n
When the International Islamic University conducted a peninsula-wide survey, commissioned by The Star, to gauge public perceptions and responses to various issues within a month of the Hindraf march, it found its Indian respondents showing restraint. From a mix of rural and urban Indians, 89% were optimistic about their own and their families’ future here, just marginally lower than both the Malays and the Chinese at 91% each. A further 84% of the Indian respondents expressed confidence in the country’s future, with 90% crediting the Barisan for it.<\/p>\n
These findings directly contradicted the Hindraf outpouring. Marches and demonstrations in KL in general found disfavour with 44% of the Indians, with 37% more strenuously opposed to them. A further 76% opposed holding any more such rallies. This is important for the Barisan Nasional as 94% of the Indians said they were coming out to vote. Significantly, 88% of the Indian respondents saw the Barisan as the party championing the people’s interests. Although perplexing, one possibility is that the Indians saw no real alternative, unlike the 33% Malays who leaned towards PAS and 25% Chinese who opted for the DAP.<\/p>\n
The MIC leadership is a large part of the problem. Post-Hindraf, Samy Vellu reiterated that he knew best how to handle his community’s problems, so fellow component parties, although well-meaning, should stay out. It is the MIC’s obvious failure to address Indian dissatisfactions, however, that gave Hindraf the window to corral Indians together in protest. If such displeasure continues at the ballot box, the MIC may indeed suffer more than the Barisan has bargained for.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Interesting to note that the writer saying Hindraf’s action has caused negative impact from the Malay kampungs.\u00a0The Malays there may feel that govt is giving too much to MIC in order to get the Indian community support. Can it be due to distorted reports in the TV and newspaper that influence the Malays or the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[130,24],"class_list":["post-1328","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-indian","tag-election-2008","tag-mic"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/poobalan.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1328","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/poobalan.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/poobalan.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poobalan.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poobalan.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1328"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/poobalan.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1328\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/poobalan.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1328"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poobalan.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1328"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/poobalan.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1328"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}