Perak sounds similar with another word that emits stinking smell. And that may well describe the situation in the Silver State.

Elections and change of governments are quite common throughout the world. We see it often in India, Thailand, Phillippines, Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Eastern Europe, EU countries etc.  But in Perak, the issue gets complicated when Sultan “asks” current MB to resign, but the MB refuses. Is it a crime to refuse? Is it against the law? Is it an act of treason? Why not just sack the MB instead of asking him and his EXCO to vacate? Is there a provision in the constitution for that? So, without this crucial step of sacking, the new government is sworn in. And now we have two state governments – complete with two MBs.

Karpal Singh said that they will file a suit in High Court against the Sultan, but later today, Anwar clarified that there would not be a suit. Instead they will seek audience with the Sultan to plead their case. The Sultan most likely will not rescind on his decision, as it may be seen as signs of weakness. Perhaps Pakatan will offer to change the MB as well.

I think the Sultan had it in for the current MB. The Nizar fellow already offended the Sultan during the head of religous department issue. And probably there are some concern with having so many Chinese reps in the assembly. Who knows what the actual reason is?

The rakyat may have felt cheated by the Sultan’s action. Do they trust his wisdom or would they want to voice out their dissent? I heard the palace’s website was taken down after so many comments criticising the Sultan’s decision were posted. We have not seen any mammoth rally throughout the state so far. If Pakatan can produce such rallies in all major cities and town in Perak, then it may well show that the new government will be rejected. So, we MAY have a case where a government not supported by the people is ruling the state, thus revealing the mistake of the royal house. Sadly we do not see such rallies. Instead we saw PAS/PKR led protests which led to few arrests. The protestors allegedly threw stones and bottles at the FRU, and blocked the cars from entering the palace. FRU shot tear gas into mosque compound (sounds like Hindraf rally at Batu Caves!).

Pakatan’s only option is through legal option or through its proxy – the rakyat. Both may not work out.

Worse case scenario with two MB is when the state assembly reconvenes, UMNO will move for a motion of no confidence. Then, Nizar will have to resign as he will lose 31-28.

Of course, I was wondering when the clown would make an entrance. And surely he did today:

Stern action, including detention under the Internal Security Act (ISA), could be taken against anyone who incite or create trouble that could affect security in the state of Perak.

The warning was issued by Home Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar regarding action by members and supporters of the Pakatan Rakyat who were unhappy after losing the majority in the State Assembly and failing to retain the government leadership in Perak.

“Pakatan Rakyat can take the matter to court if they are dissatisfied but don’t take their dissatisfaction to the streets to the extent of jeopardising security,” he said.

… Syed Hamid, who received feedback from Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Musa Hassan, said nine people had been detained for sedition and involvement in demonstrating against the swearing-in of Pangkor Assemblyman Datuk Dr Zambry Abdul Kadir as the new Perak Menteri Besar at Istana Iskandariah, Bukit Chandan, in Kuala Kangsar today.

The demonstration was held at the Ubudiah Mosque, 300 metres from the palace where the demonstrators hurled pieces of wood, stones and bottles at police personnel and vehicles passing through Jalan Istana.

He said police would take whatever action, including bringing police personnel from outside Perak, to ensure security was maintained in the state

So, the threat of ISA has been issued, and in TV3 Nightline just now, the action by PR leaders is being linked to treason by our friend.

Next, the defection of two PKR and one DAP assemblymen leading to change of government affected the Indians and Chinese the most. The Indians would not be represented at all, while the Chinese has been reduced to a single MCA rep.No more speaker and deputy speaker post for the community. Sadly, there’s not even a whimper of protest or unhappiness from either of these communities. So, does it mean they (i) support BN, (ii) giving up on Pakatan/DAP/PKR, or (iii) not bothered? So, the defectors can say their voters support their move?

Funnily, there’s not much news from other BN coalition parties on the defection of three PR reps and the forming of the UMNO government in Perak.

Pakatan has a fine line to tread. They cannot be seen as insulting the Sultan, and yet at the same time cannot give up on their position meekly.

The bigger fear is that the events in Perak may cause an implosion in other Pakatan states, especially in Kedah.

Suspicion envelopes the events leading to the defection. Two of the assemblymen have corruption cases pending and were “missing” for few days prior to their defection. The DAP candidate said that she won’t quit the night before but ended up in Putrajaya the next day afternoon. With these kind of dubious characters offering support, what made the Sultan accept their words? They may simply renege on their words and be really independents. giving both PR and BN headaches. The behaviour of the defectors also raises questions and this will be hanging over the heads of the new government. The two PKR defectors can’t join UMNO until their cases are cleared. If their corruption cases are thrown out, this will only reinforce the rumours that its a set-up. More black mark.

The three independents make it quite risky for either coalition since they will be the kingmakers. BN may double its effort to pull more PR reps to improve the odds. Likewise, PR may also try to entice BN reps, but it will be much harder as its in the opposition now.

There are views that by calling for fresh elections, it will be a waste of funds. But really, is democracy less valuable or too cheap? Can’t we spend some money for democratic process when we waste much more for flippant reasons? In fact, having an election can be part of the stimulus package for Perak. Lots of SMBs will benefit. Voters will get pocket money and other benefits. Free food. Free entertainment. Publication and printing contracts will be given. Volunteers will get paid. Hotels and F&B outlets will see increase in sales. The revenue will spur local economy and the locals will have some spending power.

By the way, if BN ultimately wins, what will happen to the JKKKs? The Federal government created separate committee called JKKKP, meaning villages had two separate committees.  Most likely the state government’s JKKK will be abolished, and the federal JKKK will take over the state JKKK.

To top it all, all this happened within days after Tajol Rosli quits Perak BN chairman post and DPM Najib takes over. Raises lots of eyebrows.

We can expect more drama over the weekend, perhaps even an ISA arrest or two. I hope it doesn’t affect the Thaipusam celebrations this weekend.