Archive for April, 2010

Hulu Selangor by-election analysis

April 25th, 2010
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Just as I thought from the beginning, BN wins back this seat with 1,725 majority, overturning a 198 vote deficit in GE 2008 (1725+198 = 1923 swing). The official count is BN  24,997 votes against PKR 23,272.

The voter turnout was higher than in GE 2008 as well, a total of 48,935 voters out of the total 64,500 voters or 75.87 per cent have cast their ballots compared to about 75.24% (47,622 voters; 1466 spoilt votes) in GE 2008. There’s an increase of 1,313 voters with about 731 spoilt votes. [note: a report says 1003 new voters. Need to update this article once details are confirmed]

Let’s look at the results first. The majority is much less than the KPI set by DPM Muhyiddin (6000 votes) and less than the 3000 votes predicted by Ibrahim Ali (yeah, that fella!). It is nearly 9 times the majority of the previous election result (198 vs 1725). However its about 3.5% of the total votes only, so not exactly a significant majority. However, as some may point out, it can be an endorsement of PM Najib’s leadership since he called it a referendum of his leadership.

Most interestingly, 37.5% of the winning votes came from postal voters! Yup, BN got 767 while PKR got 120 (spoilt votes 89).

Postal votes: 647

new votes (compared to GE 2008): (1313-731[spoilt vote]) = 582

= 1,229

Effectively, there’s only a difference of 496 (1725-1229) votes + 198 vote swinging back, which is 694 votes.   So, I’ll say its still a dicey win for BN, and in a way, Pakatan has done quick OK to reduce the loss. However, a win is still a win and BN will do well to work on this victory in Sibu and future elections.

Pakatan failed to get the intended results from the Chinese and Indian community to offset the expected loss of votes in Malay areas.

PKR’s Fuziah’s views:

“According to our figures, the voter turnout in the Felda areas were a little less than 70 per cent. The Chinese that came out to vote were only about 75 per cent and for the Indian voters, the turnout in the estates were lower than those in the towns. For the Malays, only about 70 per cent turned out,” said Fuziah.

Let’s look at some of the stream results provided by Malaysiakini:

… BN has won big in Malay-majority areas, especially the Felda settlements. While PKR has won the Chinese-majority areas, but its margin of victory in these areas is not big enough to compensate its loss in the Malay-majority area.

… PKR has won all Chinese-majority areas, while at the same time losing allMalay-majority areas.

According the ‘saluran’ results, young voters have voted overwhelmingly for Pakatan.

In addition, it appears that Indian voters have generally return to BN’s fold.

Early results show PKR winning two-thirds of the votes in Chinese-majority areas, below the 85 percent which DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang has wanted. According to Lim, PKR will need to win that much to win.

Most of the Chinese-majority areas have been counted, with PKR leading by 1,226 votes. About 30 percent of the votes counted.

6.37pm: On-the-spot analysis

According to early results, PKR is leading by a wide margin in Chinese areas and by a slight margin in mixed areas and is trailing behind BN in Malay areas.

For PKR to win, it needs to win big in Chinese and mixed areas to cover its expected loss in Malay areas.

6.34pm: Unofficial results

Kg Baru Cina KKB (Chinese area), saluran 2 – PKR 203, BN 77
Kg Baru Cina KKB (Chinese area), saluran 4 – PKR 256, BN 73
Kg Baru Cina KKB (Chinese area), saluran 1 – PKR 207, BN 56

Unofficial – PKR 666, BN 206

6.29pm: Unofficial results (PKR 2,972, BN 2,259)

Bandar Kuala Kubu Bahru (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 135, BN 82
Bandar Kuala Kubu Bahru (mixed area), saluran 2 – PKR 272, BN 212
Bandar Kuala Kubu Bahru (mixed area), saluran 3 – PKR 490, BN 205

Unofficial – PKR 897, BN 499

6.23pm: Unofficial results

Kg Baru Batang Kali (Chinese area), saluran 1- PKR 220, BN 58
Hulu Yam Barat (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 205, BN 184
Ampang Pecah (Malay area), saluran 5 – PKR 148, BN 216
Hulu Yam Barat (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 224, BN 168
Kg Gumut (Malay area), saluran 1 – PKR 104, BN 172 

Unofficial – PKR 901, BN 798

6.18pm: Unofficial results

Kg Sungai Tengi Selatan (Malay Felda), saluran 1 – PKR 62, BN 176
Kuala Kalumpang (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 98, BN 128
Kg Baru Rasa (Chinese area), saluran 1 – PKR 301, BN 75
Kg Bahru Kerling (Chinese area), saluran 1 – PKR 268, BN 122 

Unofficial – PKR 729, BN 501

6.13pm: Unofficial results

Kuala Kalumpang, saluran 1 – PKR 98, BN 128
Ulu Yam Barat, saluran 1 – PKR 171, BN 94
Kg Bharu Kerling, saluran 1 – PKR 172, BN 83
Pertak Bukit Fraser – PKR 22, BN 15
Pertak, saluran 2 – PKR 18, BN 98
Ampang Pecah, saluran 1 – PKR 105, BN 155

Unofficial – PKR 491, BN 445

As mentioned above, the support from non–Malays was not enough to offset the lesser support from Malay community.

OK, the reason for the results can be various factors, some of which I list below. I’m sure the political experts will do a more detailed analysis later.

– change of voter polling station (causing confusion)

– goodies from BN for FELDA, Chinese community, and Indian community (calculated to be nearly RM60 million worth in total. UPDATE: one Chinese newspaper says its RM167 million!)

– goodies from PR for the local communities (not enough?)

– postal voters (37.5% of the majority comes from here!)

– BN candidate approach versus Pakatan candidate approach

– Personal attack on Pakatan candidate which affected Muslim votes

– Lack of support from PAS from start

– Impact of PM Najib’s 1Malaysia

– lack of interest in “national issues” by voters

– better BN election machinery to handle rural area

– Personal visit by PM Najib

– Kg Buah Pala residents campaign

– Hindraf non-support

– MAIKA news and Samy Vellu’s departure in 14 months

– string of defections in Pakatan Rakyat camp in Perak, Kelantan, Selangor etc.

I wondered earlier if having another Indian MP in the Dewan Rakyat will bring any difference to the Indian community. Would Kamalanathan highlight community problems, something which all the other MPs failed to do in last 2 years? I don’t think so. He will be governed by the BN system and have “work” the system. Hopefully more issues can be solved with the additional MIC man.

Well, congrats to Mr Kamalanathan, hopefully God gives him the wisdom to do the right things and serve his constituency to best of his ability. As for Zaid Ibrahim, better luck next time.

On to Sibu then! 🙂

lessons from smoking in japan and indonesia, and kelly clarkson

April 25th, 2010
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To be honest, I’ve never heard of Kelly Clarkson, not surprising because I’m not into music so much. However, the decision to cancel the sponsorship tie with a tobacco company for her concert in Indonesia (albeit after being condemned and plea by fans in her FB page) caught my attention. Although latest research indicates the behavior of artistes are not as influential as advertisement by tobacco companies in getting young people to smoke (I’m still trying to find the article), I still believe it will go a long way in setting a good example.

Artistes cannot plead ignorance (same as parents, tax payers and politicians!). Her excuse:

”I think the hardest part of situations like this is getting personally attacked for something I was completely unaware of and being used as some kind of political pawn,” she wrote.

Don’t just think of bottom line profit la!

The impact of unhindered tobacco advertisement in Indonesia (one of the last holdouts that has not signed the World Health Organization’s tobacco treaty):

As smoking has declined in many Western countries, it has risen in Indonesia – about 63 percent of all men light up and one-third of the overall population smokes, an increase of 26 percent since 1995.

Smoking-related illnesses kill at least 200,000 annually in a nation of 235 million.

… About a quarter of Indonesian boys aged 13 to 15 are already hooked on cigarettes that sell for about $1 a pack or as little as a few cents apiece, according to WHO. A video on YouTube last month prompted outrage when a 4-year-old Indonesian boy was shown blowing smoke rings and flicking a cigarette. His parents say he’s been smoking up to a pack a day since he was 2. [what were the parents doing???]

… According to a 2008 study on tobacco revenue in Indonesia, smokers spend more than 10 percent of their household income on cigarettes; that’s three times more than they spend on education-related expenses such as school fees and books.

Indonesia remains one of the last places in the world where cigarette TV commercials still run, featuring rugged men and beautiful women smoking. Billboards plastered above four-lane highways encourage motorists stuck in Jakarta’s notorious traffic jams to “Go Ahead” or “Become a Man” or let Marlboro Lights “Style Your Party.”

Leggy women in short skirts and strappy heels promote cigarettes at events, sometimes even giving out discounted or free samples to “taste.”

Indonesia’s tobacco industry employs millions in the world’s fifth-largest cigarette-producing market. About 6 percent of the government’s revenue comes from cigarette taxes, and a powerful tobacco lobby has blocked past regulation attempts, including a move to ban TV ads.

Indonesian cigarettes are cheap by regional standards, with taxes less than 40 percent.

Tobacco farmers have held massive street protests to denounce any push for higher taxes or tighter restrictions.

“Kretek cigarettes are Indonesia’s heritage just like cigars in Cuba,” ” said Nurtantio Wisnu Brata, chair of the Central Java chapter of the Indonesian Tobacco Farmers Association.

Any move to limit tobacco promotion and use in the country will require strong political will. But critics point out that even Indonesia’s smoke-happy neighbors China and Vietnam have signed the WHO’s tobacco treaty and imposed stronger controls.

“The level of advertising in Indonesia is unmatched anywhere else in Asia,” said Mary Assunta, senior policy adviser for the Southeast Asia Tobacco Control Alliance. “The Marlboro Man has ridden into the sunset in many countries, but not in Indonesia.”

But there is still hope:

In recent months, anti-tobacco forces have rallied. A new health law has declared smoking addictive and urged the government to hammer out tobacco regulations. An anti-smoking coalition is pushing for tighter restrictions on smoking in public places, advertising bans and bigger health warnings on cigarette packages.

Public debate also exploded last month after Indonesia’s second-largest Islamic organization, Muhammadiyah, issued a fatwa banning smoking. Though not legally binding, the religious ruling does put pressure on smokers in the world’s most populous Muslim nation.

Now, contrast that with situation in Japan:

Japan’s smoking rate has fallen to a record low amid rising health awareness and tighter regulations.

WOW! The huge billboard in front of Yokohama Park across the intersections must have cost a bomb. It depicts a picture of a little girl beside a smouldering cigarette held in a man’s hand. The caption reads: “For the health of others, do stop smoking while walking.”

When my son was a toddler, his hair was nearly singed and my hand almost burnt by the cigarettes of smokers jostling in crowded places. Inhaling the secondary smoke made us cough, too.

My husband had smoked for nearly three decades. When he started working after graduating from university, his mother had encouraged him to smoke for the sake of socialising, only to regret later because the house reeked of tobacco smoke and the wallpapers got stained.

My father was a chain-smoker until he quit at the age of 50. Much as I loathe smoking, I overlooked this flaw in Koji when I married him.

Soon-to-be smoke-free: Japan has now banned smoking in public areas while some areas have introduced an ordinance banning smoking in the streets.

After Ken was born, Koji was confined to his study room (which I nicknamed “nicotine room”) whenever he needed a smoke. When we went on outings, he sneaked off with his portable ashtray, for a puff.

When we shifted into our present apartment, he lost his “nicotine room”. So he puffed away on the balcony.

Even during winter, he would brave the cold outside to have his cigarette before breakfast. Frustrated, I told him that he should emulate my father’s determination to kick the habit.

“I’ll quit when I reach 50,” Koji replied casually.

A week before his 50th birthday, when we reminded him of his “promise,” he retorted: “I think you said your father quit at 55.”

During that week, Ken and I checked his pockets. Good. He didn’t bring back any cigarette or filter. For the first two weeks, he kept his craving at bay with chewing gums. As an incentive for him to persevere, I rewarded him with a dinner treat and an expensive pair of shoes.

Now Koji detests the smell of tobacco smoke. His brother, brother-in-law and niece had also quit smoking.

Japan has been dubbed a major smoking nation, but its smoking rate has been decreasing since a decade ago.

Last year, a 31-year-old man and his three-year-old daughter filed a lawsuit against Tokyo’s Kita Ward government for failing to take preventive measures against passive smoking in the park, and demanded ¥100,000 (RM3,463) as compensation for the sore eyes and sore throat that they suffered. Follow ing that, the authorities removed all public ashtrays in 20 children’s parks.

Since its nationwide launch on July 1, 2008, smokers need to show their “Taspo” (tobacco passport) card to purchase cigarettes from convenience stores or vending machines. This smart card is issued to those 20 and above, to prevent minors from smoking.

Yet, underaged smokers have been illegally using the card. Two years ago in Fukuoka, a woman (a non-smoker) became the first person to be prosecuted for obtaining a Tas po card for her underaged son to buy cigarettes from a vending machine. Her action was tantamount to giving cigarettes to a minor.

It was not an April Fool’s joke when Japan’s first anti-smoking ordinance took effect in Kanagawa Prefecture, banning smoking in schools, hospitals, government offices and other public places. A ¥2,000 (RM69) fine is imposed for smoking in prohibited public buildings, while managers of such facilities face a ¥20,000 (RM690) fine.

The penalty would also apply to restaurants and hotels from April next year.

Many people welcome this move, though smokers, business operators and the tobacco industry will be affected.

Restaurants, mahjong and pachinko parlours with a floor space of over 100sqm and hotels of over 700sqm must either become non-smoking or create designated smoking areas. Operators of smaller business facilities are required to ensure a smoke-free environment and are not subjected to the penalty yet.

Notwithstanding the smoking and non-smoking sections in major restaurant chains, non-smokers are still exposed to the harmful effects of second-hand smoke. Neverthe less, major restaurant chains like McDonald’s Co (Japan) Ltd and Yoshinoya Co had prohibited smoking at their Kanagawa outlets, even before the enforcement.

The ban on smoking at swimming beaches (except for designated areas) is expected to be implemented next month. No penalty has been set for offenders but hopefully, the ban would reduce littering and prevent health hazards caused by secondary smoking.

From October, the price of cigarettes is likely to increase by ¥100 (RM3.45) a pack, to offset the market’s falling sales.

With the smoke-free environment campaigns, Tobacco Inc will launch non-flammable, odourless cigarettes next month, initially in Tokyo. Costing ¥300 (RM10.40) and classified as sniffing tobacco, Zero Style Mint comes with a tobacco pipe, mouthpiece and two cartridges. A pack of four refill cartridges costs ¥400 (RM13.80). The 8cm cigarette-like device can last half a day or the whole day, and its nicotine content is one-twentieth that of a regular cigarette.

With such stringent actions, Japan’s smoking rate is expected to drop further.

Well, we can take a leaf or two out of Japan’s success story so far. Strict rules, better enforcement, coming out with products that are less harmful, and so on. We are also slowly moving away from tobacco planting to other crops.

I will also like to propose that all smokers must be forced to take up additional insurance policy to cater for their indulgence. I don’t want government money being wasted on some smoker who needs treatment due to his addiction.  Secondly, such smokers should also ensure their families are well protected (financially) in the event of the their untimely demise or incapacitation, the family won’t be having financial difficulties.

1MALAYSIA Economics Seminar by MIBC

April 25th, 2010
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received via email:

The Malaysian Indian Business Co-operative is organising a half-day seminar entitled 1MALAYSIA ECONOMICS SEMINAR on Saturday, the 15th of May, 2010 at the Auditorium at Wisma Paradise in 63 Jalan Ampang, Kuala Lumpur. This is part of our obligations to our community who are starved of business opportunities and lack the knowledge to access available funds.

We have three eminent speakers and trust members of the community will benefit from the knowledge to be imparted at the Seminar. The tentative program for the day is as follows:

Time Topic Speaker
9.00am -9.45am Sources of Funds En. Fozian Ismail of Small and Medium Enterprises Corporation
9.45am – 10.00am Q & A
10.00am- 10.20am Tea Break
10.25am -11.10am Seeking New
Business Opportunities Dato’Pardip Kumar Kukreja, CEO Paradise
Group
11.10am – 11.25am Q & A
11.30am – 12.15pm Access to Finance Mr. Thomas Tan of Bank Negara
12.15pm -12.30pm Q & A
12.30pm – 12.50pm Panel Discussion Participants to seek clarification on related topics
1.00pm Close

The fee for this useful seminar is only RM70.00 to cover costs of venue and refreshments. Persons wishing to participate are requested to send in an email to ganapathy_ramasamy@yahoo.com

Payment of RM 70/- should be made thru cheque/Money Order in the name of “KOPERASI PENIAGA-PENIAGA INDIA MALAYSIA BERHAD” and posted to Malaysian Indian Business Co-operative, 5.02 A, Level 5, Wisma Paradise, 63 Jalan Ampang, 50450 Kuala Lumpur before the seminar date.
You may also make online payment to CIMB Account No: 14260074623525. If you are making online payment please send me an email or fax the receipt to 03 7981 0424.

As seats are limited allocation will be on a first come basis.
Rgds

Ganapathy Ramasamy
Organising Chairman
H/P 013 3691021

Twists and turns as voting day looms in Hulu Selangor

April 24th, 2010
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Just less than one hour left before campaign period ends. Voters in Hulu Selangor will make the important act tomorrow and results are expected by late night.

There was some doubts about Bn candidate Kamalanathan’s academic qualifications after RPK said Edith Cowan didn’t have such records. The issue was clarified later by Olympia College and a search at Edith Cowan website.

I was listening to Minnal FM news in the evening and all I heard was this school got RMxxx, that school got RMxxx, This deputy minister solved this issue, that deputy minister solved that issue and so on. Quite a long list. Hulu Selangor Indians are are lucky lot this month. Err..not forgetting the Chinese and also the Felder settlers.

Felda folks get R 50,000 each as compensation for the land taken over by government. Selangor government immediately appoints Zaid to oversea the Felda issues. Even Works minister don’t want to be left out, announcing the elevated highway interchange project to start in 2011 (and nope, its not a sudden project he says). Felcra folks and Orang Asli community also got something from DPM Muhyiddin. Chinese school, Tamil school, all get something.

Selangor Menteri Besar Khalid Ibrahim announces the set up of a Selangor Felda Task Force – headed by Zaid – to look into and tackle the problems of Felda settlers in the state.

Zaid has been given a three-months’ timetable to complete the task force’s terms of reference.

Khalid also announces that the state government has plans for a housing project for second-generation Felda settlers in Selangor. PKR vice-president Mohd Azmin Ali will head this development project in collaboration with state development agency PKNS.

Most humiliating and incriminating is promises of “more goodies to come” if the voters vote for them. Isn’t this inducement?

Everyone get something courtesy of BN (mainly) and PR.  I really wonder if the residents will decide on their vote based on the longevity of the candidate since death brings some much good news. Kamalanathan is in his 40s while Zaid is in his 60s I think.

Ong Kian Ming predicts PR to win with 1000 to 1500 votes while one survey says PR is leading by about 3%, but I still stand by initial  view that the seat is for BN to lose.

Will these students be investigated for taking part in protest?

April 24th, 2010
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We always read about students hauled up for protests, be it in IPTA like UPM or some NGO-organised events.

Today, some Iraqi students protested at Sunway. Is this freedom of speech (as per Hishamuddin version) or does it violate AUKU? Can postgraduate students do this? Just curious, coz maybe in future, when Sri Lankan president visits Malaysian, some Malaysian Indians or Sri Lankan students may also do the same.

Amani Majid and Osama Abdul Karim are two names mentioned in the article below:

About 100 angry protesters stomped on and burnt pictures of Tony Blair today as the former British prime minister addressed a business gathering in Malaysia.
The anti-war campaigners shouted noisy slogans against Blair’s involvement in the invasion of Iraq and threatened to throw shoes at him – an action considered a grave insult in the Arab and Muslim world – if he came near them.

The demonstrators, including Iraqis living in Malaysia, described Blair as a war criminal and said that he should be hauled up before an international court for the death of innocent Iraqi people.

“We oppose Tony Blair’s presence in Malaysia. His hands are full of Iraqi blood. He must go to the grave,” Amani Majid, 44 a student at a local university, told AFP.

Despite the protest, Blair gave a 40-minute speech to more than 3,000 participants in Petaling Jaya.

Success Resources, a company founded in Singapore, brought Blair to Malaysia as a sponsored speaker at the National Achievers Congress.

‘He is a war criminal’

Police did not break up the protest as demonstrators held a few banners including: “Blair Murderer,” and “Get out of Malaysia.”

Blair, Britain’s prime minister from 1997 to 2007, was then US president George W Bush’s staunchest ally and sent British troops to Iraq in 2003.

Osama Abdul Karim, 30, an Iraqi student, said: “He is a war criminal. Blair should not come here to talk about business success.

“He destroyed the infrastructure in Iraq. He should be hit with a pair of shoes. What kind of democracy has he brought to Iraq?”

“I ran out of Iraq with my family in 2006. It is no longer a safe country to live,” he added.