Obviously, of the three by-elections around the corner, Bukit Selambau in Kedah is of interest to the Indian community. The by-election in Perak is critical for BN to fortify its claim on the state government while a win for Pakatan will be seen as rejection of BN’s coup. In Sarawak, the by-election will be a test of the inroads made by Pakatan Rakyat. A loss would mean that Pakatan have to double their effort, while a loss for BN would be damaging as East Malaysia support for BN is crucial to maintain the majority in federal government. The thought of Sarawak (or Sabah for the matter) possibly falling into Pakatan Rakyat’s hand will be causing nightmare for BN leaders.

Back to Bukit Selambau. This particular by-election may be creating a history of sorts if all those who paid the deposits actually contested. That would mean 9 independent candidates, and one each from BN and Pakatan. 11 candidates!

Of the 9 independents who have paid the RM8ooo deposit, 4 are Indians:

1.  former Kedah PPP Wanita chief L. Sarala, 34

2.  businessman T. Chandrarajan, 40

3.  contractor R. Loganathan, 43

4. A. Jayagopal, 57

The others are 4 Malays and one Chinese.

BN’s candidate is Datuk S Ganesan, while Pakatan’s choice is a novice, S Manikumar (who will be paying his deposit on nomination day today). A bit of info on Ganesan:

“I was born at the Sungai Division Estate here and spent my school years here. As I was born here, I believe that I will get strong support from the local people.

“I have a law firm in Sungai Petani where my wife, R. Vatsala manages the practice,” he said.

Ganesan, who has four children, joined MIC in 1983 and was appointed as the state deputy MIC chairman in 2002.

He contested and won the Lunas state seat in the 2004 general election. He did not contest in March 8, 2008 election.

35 year old Manikumar’s background:

Manikumar, who has been an ordinary party member since 2007, said that he would be representing all races as the candidate for PKR.

Manikumar, a business degree holder from UUM, is a car dealer in Sungai Pasir, Padang Temesu, located within Bukit Selambau. He is also a resident of Bukit Selambau.

It seems he also holds an MBA.

Manikumar, who holds a Bachelor’s degree in tourism management and a Master’s degree in business administration, both from Universiti Utara Malaysia, is an ordinary member of PKR’s Merbok division.

Manikumar, who is married to a teacher and has a 6-year-old son, has worked as a marketing consultant for several companies in Thailand and Tanzania and done a stint in oil palm and vehicle trading.

“Manikumar is a local boy who lives in Taman Ria Jaya here. He obtained a degree in tourism management in 1999 and a Masters in Business Administration from Universiti Utara Malaysia in 2005.

The Star provided some details as well:

“He is a committee member in the Kedah Indian Chamber of Commerce, a consultant for companies in Thailand and Tanzania, as well as an experienced trader of oil palm and vehicles,” Anwar said yesterday as he introduced Manikumar to a crowd of about 500 at Yayasan Aman, a PKR operations centre in Sungai Lalang, near here.

Anwar also said that Manikumar was proficient in four languages: Bahasa Melayu, English, Tamil and Spanish.

Manikumar, who is married to a secondary school teacher and has a six-year-old daughter, has been a party member for two years.

I don’t think knowing Spanish would help Manikumar in Bukit Selambau.

The plot is thickened with unhappiness over Pakatan’s choice of candidate. Hindraf, local Indians, and even certain quarters in PKR itself are not satisfied. Hindraf, it seems, planned to put up either Thanenthiran, lawyer Surendran, or ISA detainee Vasantha Kumar as a candidate:

Makkal Sakthi coordinator R. Kannan said they were disappointed as several names proposed by Hindu Rights Action Force (Hindraf) had not been considered.

He said Hindraf chairperson P. Waythamoorthy had urged Anwar to consider Makkal Sakthi coordinator S. Thanenthiran, lawyer R. Surendran or Internal Security Act (ISA) detainee Vasantha Kumar.

“We wanted our voice heard in the Government. This is the first time we had made such a request,” he said when contacted.

“We will not boycott the by-election but our involvement will be far less than in the March 2008 general election,” he said.

In fact, PKR’s shortlisted candidates list of three did not include Manikumar. The three were Sungai Petani PKR division member Dr R Krishnamoorthy, the division’s committee member S Sritharan and Merbok division committee member and Sungai Petani municipal councillor K Masilamani.

Seems that it was  the previous assemblyman, Arumugam (who quit) has strongly suggested Manikumar:

A source close to the party said that Manikumar was a close associate of Arumugam.

“Arumugam met Anwar recently and managed to convince him that his candidate would be able to win the seat and do a good job as an elected representative,” said the source.

The source also said Manikumar would be an ideal choice as the  state executive councillor, replacing Arumugam.

Arumugam, who still yields wide influence in Bukit Selambau, has also said that he would be campaigning for Manikumar, added the source.

During announcement of Manikumar, there were protests from the audience – signs of a problem brewing:

Shortly after the de facto PKR leader made the announcement, a group of about 20 men, many wearing vests with the PKR logo, cried foul.

A few of them claimed Manikumar, 35, whom Anwar had said was the best candidate among the 15 shortlisted, was an “outsider” and a “parachute candidate”.

One of them said he had been in Merbok and Sungai Petani for many years but had never heard of Manikumar.

One man threatened to campaign for independent candidates if Anwar did not replace Manikumar with one Dr R. Khrisnamoorthy, the group’s choice as candidate for PKR.

On seeing the commotion outside the double-storey PKR office in Bedong near here, Padang Serai MP and PKR supreme council member N. Gobalakrishnan approached the group.

Gobalakrishnan took a few of the dissatisfied PKR supporters into the office, presumably to meet Anwar, who had stayed back after seeing off Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Azizan Abdul Razak.

A large number of the 1,000-plus crowd who had gathered earlier to hear the naming of the candidate, hung around for further news.

Finally, after almost two hours, Anwar came out and assured the crowd that all was well. He was then quickly ushered to a waiting car.

Moments later, Manikumar came out.

All he said before being driven off was that he was thankful he had been chosen as the “calon yang sah” (legitimate candidate).

Asked what the dissatisfied group would do next, a member, who identified himself as Santhagunan, said: “Wait for March 29 (nomination day).”

More voices of unhappiness:

“Who is Manikumar? We have never seen him in this area. He was never present for any community events or struggles,” said Paya Besar, Kulim social service centre head YP Baskaran.

In fact some of these leaders are also questioning Manikumar’s credibility as a clean candidate.

“There are some serious issues concerning his business dealings as a car dealer. Many people have complained to us about this,” said Hindraf national coordinator RS Thanenthiren.

“We want Anwar to reconsider his choice. We give him until today evening to make a decision on this matter. If he wants to stick with Manikumar, then I think it is a mistake which Pakatan will regret later,” he told Malaysiakini.

Thanenthiren said that most of the Indian voters in Bukit Selambau were Hindraf supporters and this was proven during the last general election last March when they worked hard to vote in V Arumugam, who was an independent candidate.

“The Hindraf supporters here worked very hard in ensuring that Arumugam won. They made sure that MIC which was traditionally strong here would not have it easy.

“And now they are disappointed that their efforts had not been recognised by Anwar in not naming a candidate who is close to them and the movement,” he added.

“Anwar must realise that the candidate he picks will be made an exco member, representing the Indians not just in Bukit Selambau but also in the whole of Kedah,” added Thanenthiren.

While Thanenthiren was among those promoted by the local Hindraf leaders as the candidate, he however said what was important was to have a candidate who was accepted by the local voters.

“It is only wise that Anwar picked someone who is well known to the people and can actually serve the community,” he said.

It must be noted that Thanenthiren wields some influence among the Indians here in Kedah, especially in Bukit Selambau, in his capacity as the national coordinator of Hindraf.

Other community leaders are also upset with Anwar for not consulting them on the choice of candidate.

They are also claiming that the PKR chief had not consulted local PKR leaders from the community.

“There are so many other capable candidates in PKR. If not them, there are also some local Hindraf leaders. If they were unsuitable, Anwar could have chosen someone capable from DAP, or even an Indian representative from PAS,” said Kedah Makkal Sakthi (people power) coordinator R Ramu.

Some of these leaders also doubt Manikumar’s two-year-old membership in PKR.

“Anwar will have to reconsider his choice. Otherwise, it will be difficult for PKR to win this seat without the Indian votes,” added another local community leader.

Worse still,Malaysiakini reported that several local Indian community leaders from PKR have already closed down their election operation centres across Bukit Selambau and that a local PKR leader said it would not be a surprise if PKR local leaders and members campaigned for independent candidates during the by-election.

This boosts MIC Ganesan’s chances significantly.

Samy Vellu highlighted the fact that by choosing BN candidate, Bukit Selambau folks will have a chance of getting more allocation from the federal government (not sure if that’s a threat or bribery).  Its hypothetical of course, and I guess progress in last 50 years would provide sufficient proof on how much allocation was given to Bukit Selambau by the federal and state governments. It would be grossly unfair to evaluate one year against 50. Of more interest is how much of the promises made by the previous candidate has been fulfilled and his track record for the last 11 months. Then, one has to decide if the failure (if there’s any) of the previous assemblyman a reflection of the state government’s failure or ineptitude. Following that, would a change of candidate from the same party bring forth changes? Or should one change the party altogether?

Thus this will be an interesting by-election for the Indians. Who would they vote for? MIC’s Dr S Subra claims that the Indians are “coming back” to BN while MIC Youth political bureau head V. Mugilan says Ganesan had better chance of winning now compared to last year’s general elections.

Indian voters in Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang are “coming back” to Barisan Nasional, claims MIC secretary-general Datuk S. Subramaniam.

This was based on feedback from visits to Indian areas in the two constituencies over the past two weeks, he told reporters after visiting the MIC operations centre here late on Thurs-day.

Dr Subramaniam, who is also the Human Resources Minister, said such a scenario was not so evident during the last general election, when the MIC lost six of its nine parliamentary and 12 of its 19 state seats.

“We see a change in their attitude because they know only the MIC can assist them during good and bad times,” he said.

He said that in Bukit Gantang where Indians accounted for almost 10% of the electorate, problems such as the lack of good infrastructure in Tamil schools were resolved long before the by-elections were called.

“We don’t embark on problem-solving only when there are elections, we have been doing this all the while,” he said.

In Kuala Lumpur, MIC Youth political bureau head V. Mugilan said the wing had started mobilising its members to campaign for the Bukit Selambau and Bukit Gantang by-elections.

He added that Barisan candidates had a better chance of winning compared with the last general election.

“People now realise they were taken in by sweet promises that were not fulfilled, after a year of Pakatan Rakyat rule in the two states (Kedah and Perak),” he told a press conference at the MIC headquarters yesterday.

BN are not taking any chances, and the Star reported that MIC president Datuk Seri S. Samy Vellu (probably due to MIED-AIMST accounts), Umno Youth deputy chief Khairy Jamaluddin and former Selangor Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Khir Toyo have been advised not to campaign in this constituency where the percentage of Malay and non-Malay voters are almost equal.

However, Samy was in Bukit Selambau earlier, and reported positively:

“Both sides (MIC and the Indian community) have been engaged in open and frank discussions for the past two weeks, and we have managed to thrash out many differences,” he said in a statement today.

He said MIC wanted to hear the views and feelings of the Indian community in Bukit Selambau in relations to various issues, including the death of suspected car thief, Kugan Ananthan while in police custody.

“We have explained to them that the matter is currently being investigated and if there is a case, the police have said that the culprit will be charged in court,” he said.

Samy Vellu said he had ‘camped’ in Bukit Selambau for the last two weeks to oversee MIC’s election preparations and was happy with the cooperation extended by all Barisan Nasional component parties in the constituency.

The MIC president said he had personally gone to opposition-controlled areas in Bukit Selambau to ‘neutralise the lies’ being spread by certain quarters about the federal government and BN.

“There are between 13 to 15 areas which according to our survey are hotspots, and we have embarked on door-to-door campaign to meet the voters.

“They (the Indian voters) have become friendly to us (MIC) because they felt that the previous assemblyperson from the opposition had neglected them,” he said.

Samy Vellu said they have also accepted Ganesan who has been moving with the MIC chief in his campaign trail.

“The Malay and Chinese voters have also accepted him because he has the experience being the former assemblyperson of Lunas (Kedah) and a lawyer by profession. His smile and pleasant face is also wooing the crowd,” he said.

“I will continue to visit Bukit selambau until the by-election is over.

I think BN has a good chance. The Indians’ vote will be split among the Indian independent candidates while the Malay votes may be split among the Malay independent candidates. The Chinese will go for Pakatan if BN doesn’t do anything beneficial in the next few days.

My question is, if HINDRAF was successful in the sense that it awakened the Indian community, why do we have four Indian independent candidates? Why not four of them sit down together and choose one among themselves to stand for elections? Does it mean some of the four are planted by either BN or Pakatan? Or all four are unable to work together for the benefit of greater good?

Whatever it is, I think the Bukit Selambau fiasco is an indication of the failure to cooperate among the community. If Manikumar wins, it means HINDRAF’s voice is becoming irrelevant. If he loses, Pakatan pays for not listening to HINDRAF and its own leaders. BN, by playing its cards right, can win Bukit Selambau.