Posts Tagged ‘Statistics’

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PM predicts economy on the road to recovery

February 28th, 2010
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PM Najib predicted that the economy is recovering. This is considered good news as the country can see more money, and public can spend more, and producers can make more profit. Obviously, another reason for price hike. Due to demand in industries, more foreigners may be brought in to meet production quotas and also since the locals may not like such jobs.

The employment in some industries will increase, so graduates can find job after graduating next few months. That may lead to lower crime rates too.

PUTRAJAYA: The worst is over for the Malaysian economy, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said, predicting a five per cent expansion this year.
The economy expanded well above expectations in the fourth quarter of last year on higher domestic and external demand.

It rose 4.5 per cent in the three months ended Dec 31, marking an end to three straight quarters of contraction.

For the full year, however, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 1.7 per cent, which was narrower than the three per cent previously forecast. The GDP for 2008 was 4.6 per cent.

“With the positive performance (in the fourth quarter), the worst is over and, yes, I am bullish for 2010, provided nothing unexpected happens in the global economy, like any major power collapse and barring other unforeseen circumstances.” Najib spoke after witnessing the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Risda, Felda and Felcra here yesterday.

“We have recovered from the crisis and I expect strong growth in 2010. I am confident we can achieve five per cent this year, one or two per cent more than the earlier forecast of three per cent.” Najib, who is also finance minister, said exports recovered to expand by 5.1 per cent in the fourth quarter compared with a 22.4 per cent decline in the previous quarter.

All economic sectors recorded improved performance. In the services sector, growth was broadbased with almost all sub-sectors recording higher rates.

The manufacturing sector recorded positive growth of 5.3 per cent, reflecting the improvement in both external and domestic demand.

Activities in the construction sector expanded 9.2 per cent.

Najib said sustained growth in private consumption and increased public sector spending contributed to higher domestic demand during the fourth quarter, helped by the holiday and festive seasons.

Public sector consumption expenditure expanded further by 1.3 per cent while public sector capital spending increased substantially as the implementation of projects under the fiscal stimulus packages gained further momentum during the quarter under review.

During the quarter, development expenditure of the government amounted to RM17.6 billion (RM11.6 billion in the third quarter), up 9.5 per cent from a year ago.

Najib said to date, over 113,000 projects under the government’s two fiscal stimulus packages had been, or were being, implemented, involving RM17 billion. Of this, RM13.9 billion had been paid by the government. On average, the government has pumped about RM1 billion per month into the economy from January last year.

Foreign direct investment amounted to RM7.2 billion in the fourth quarter, up from RM6.7 billion in the third quarter.

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Penjara Wanita Kajang

January 18th, 2010
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Managed to visit the Women’s Prison in Kajang (and sorry, no photos allowed inside the building). Some interesting facts I learnt from the officers there:

1. There’s between 1000 and 2000 prisoners at any one time, but the capacity is about 400 only.

2. Most of the inhabitants are foreigners who commit crimes like overstaying, misusing visa/permit etc. There were nearly 80% of them at the time of the visit.

3. Most prisoners are in for short term (6 months and less) due to the type of the crime committed. Example of crimes: drug use, permit misuse, overstaying, stealing, etc.

4. The locals are allowed to study (MLVK Tahap 1 is being taught, started recently).

5. There are various activities like cooking, cleaning, tailoring, food processing, saloon and spa service ,batik making, handicraft making, etc. to occupy the prisoners’ time. The prison earns about RM7 million in annual sales from the products made by the prisoners.

7. Children up to age of 3 are allowed to accompany their mother in the prison (there’s a nursery). After that, the kids are given to next of kin or sent to welfare homes.

8. Being female, there’s less problem with the prisoners.

9. Those being remanded are also held in this prison while waiting for the case to be mentioned.

10. Overall, the prisoners looked well treated, and nope, I did not visit the cells.

Well, I can’t provide exact numbers and specifics of the place, but I hope the above gives you some idea of the prison.

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5 percent economic growth target?

January 13th, 2010
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If we recorded -3.6% growth last year ( source) and aim to achieve more than 5% growth this year, that means an increase of 8.6%. I think very few countries achieved that percentages, among them China and India. Anyway, we pray for the best…

The Economic Planning Unit (EPU) is confident that the country will achieve an economic growth of more than 5% this year based on several positive indicators.

Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop said one of the indicators was the shift from retrenchment to recruitment in the manufacturing sector since July last year.

He said business confidence and consumer spending was also on the uptrend as loan applications rose by 37.4% while approvals were up by 25% until October last year compared with the same period in 2008.

The sales of passenger cars had also showed an increase at 40,569 units up to November last year compared with 36,254 during the same period in 2008.

“The trends are changing and we are confident that 2010 is going to be a good year,” he told a press conference after witnessing the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Government and the Oxford Business Group on The Report: Malaysia 2010.

EPU director-general Datuk Noriyah Ahmad signed on behalf of the Government while the Oxford Business Group was represented by its country director Laura Herrero.

Nor Mohamed also said the impact of the two stimulus packages rolled out by the Government last year would be seen this year.

The anticipated higher demand for semiconductors due to the rapid expansion of the automative industry in China and India would benefit Malaysia as it is a major producer of electronic chips.

The prices of oil and commodities like palm oil were also on the uptrend and there had also been a rise in tourism activities, he said.

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Numbers don’t paint a rosy picture

December 15th, 2009
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Some excerpts from speeches by Finance Minister II:

– While Singapore and Korea’s nominal per capita GDP grew within the last three decades by 9 and 12 times, respectively, ours only by a factor of 4.

– Amongst our peers, China, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand, our real GDP growth in the last three years was the second lowest at 5.5%.

– Our manufacturing sector is not investing up the value chain while our services sector remains low in growth and under-developed.

– Our economy has been stagnating in the last decade. We have lost our competitive edge to remain as the leader of the pack in many sectors of the economy. Our private investment has been steadily in decline. Our private investment is now half of what it was since the Asian crisis while both manufacturing and service sectors have become less capital intensive. For the period 2000 to 2007, our investment per value-added in percentage nominal terms in manufacturing dropped from 30.6% to 21.7% while the services sector, the decline is from 26.8% to 22.1%.

– We know that the bumiputras do not hold the bulk of Malaysia’s wealth. A simple analysis of our capital account will show that there has been a continuous outflow of capital from our shores. In this mobile world, capital will always flow to jurisdictions that are perceived to be more secure, not necessarily the ones that give a higher return.

– The mismatch between our industry’s needs and the output from the local universities has resulted in Malaysia having the highest unemployment rate of graduates, at close to 4.0%, compared to, for example, Ireland, Korea and Singapore.

– We are most unhappy that the private sector’s share in its contribution to our Nation’s GDP has steadily declined since the Asian Financial Crisis. We are also alarmed by the decline in the private sector’s level of investment, both in the manufacturing and services industries.

Not sure if this guy will around next year if there’s a cabinet reshuffle, going by the way the facts are presented.

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Migrate or is abroad?

December 2nd, 2009
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I got a shock of my life when BERNAMA reported that 300k++ Malaysian have migrated overseas in the past ONE year!  Don’t believe? Read this:

304,358 M’sians Migrated To Other Countries From March 2008 Till Aug 2009
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 30 (Bernama) — The Dewan Rakyat was told Monday that 304,358 Malaysians migrated to other counrtries from March 2008 till August this year.

Deputy Foreign Minister Senator A. Kohilan Pillay said the figure for 2007 was 139,696 citizens.

“Among the factors for their migration were because of education, brighter career or business prospects as well following their spouses for Malaysians who married foreigners,” he said when replying to a question for Chua Tee Yong (BN-Labis) on the matter.

Then I read the longer version in Malaysian Insider:

The number of Malaysians who surrendered their citizenship has almost doubled in this year, according to Deputy Foreign Minister Senator A. Kohilan Pillay, who revealed today that about 3,800 Malaysians have given up their citizenships to date compared to 2,000 last year.

This figure, however, is much smaller than the 304,358 Malaysians who were reported to have migrated from March 2008 to August 2009.

Kohilan clarified that the number of “Malaysians who migrated” consists of those who are working abroad and registered with the respective Malaysian embassies.

There was nevertheless a sharp rise in the number of Malaysians who registered themselves as having moved abroad with 210,000 of them doing so from January to August this year compared with 94,000 from March to December 2008.

He also said that between 45 to 55 per cent, or roughly half, of the Malaysians working abroad are professionals.

The volume of Malaysian talent moving abroad is a potentially damaging brain drain and a matter of concern as the country is attempting to remake itself into a developed high-income nation.

The most common reasons given for migration were better education, brighter career or business prospects and marriage.

Kohilan also pointed out that the government is taking some steps to attract talent to the country, including making it easier for foreigners with desired expertise to obtain permanent residence.

Kohilan, who is from Gerakan, also criticised the Penang state government currently under Pakatan Rakyat, saying that they should stop using the shortage of engineers an excuse for the recent loss of an RM10 billion electronic factory investment and should instead find ways to overcome it.

“Penang should not blame others if there is no investment,” Kohilan told The Malaysian Insider. “What professionals would want to stay there if there is only push factors? There must also be pull factors. They must think wisely and make sure the state also has pull factors.”

Kohilan said that there was no breakdown by race for Malaysians who have moved abroad but some migration agents have noticed a rise in applications from Malays to migrate over the past few years.

Robert Chelliah, who runs a migration consultancy in Petaling Jaya says that he has seen a noticeable increase in interest among Malays to move to Australia.

“These are educated Malays and they feel frustrated with the system of governance and they have a global frame of reference to make comparisons,” he said.

“Generally, the push factor from Malaysia has been on the rise … people feel pushed away from the country. They feel alienated and they feel that their prospects are limited by factors that they have no control over,” he added.

According to Kohilan, Australia had the most number of Malaysians registered with the Malaysian embassy with 274,000 and the US second with 31,000 and Taiwan third with 14,000.

He added that there were about 50,000 Malaysian students now studying abroad.

Now that is a better number. Only 3800 gave up citizenship. Not so bad lah, even though nearly double than the year before.

Rising application from Malays? Well, that’s just one consultant’s view., But if compared with statistics from 1996 to 2007 in which only 1720 Malays migrated, I wonder how many moved away in the last one year.

Australia is having high population of Malaysians due to students who graduate and continue living there, and parents who migrate to put up with their children. Even ministers take up PR there 🙂 .

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