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Frightening scenario indeed!
Imagine 5,500 deaths by 2010. That’s the scenario laid out by Dr Tee Ah Sian, director of communicable diseases of WHO:
At a recent briefing to the National Influenza Pandemic Task Force meeting (July 29, 2009), Dr Tee Ah Sian, director of communicable diseases of WHO, painted a possible scenario for the Malaysian A (H1N1) pandemic. While I do not wish to be alarmist, it is good to at least recognise the least impact scenario which has been projected.
For our 27.7 million population, if simply 20% are at risk and exposed, then some 5.5 million people will contract the A (H1N1) flu. Based on other serious influenza statistics, if 2% to 9% require hospitalisation then, some 110,000 to 500,000, respectively, would need hospital care.
From these numbers, if we estimate the case fatality rate to be from 0.1% to 0.5%, then some 5,500 to 28,000 of infected patients would die, respectively. In the latest updates of the most seriously ill patients identified and confirmed infections, the global case fatality rate has risen from the 0.4% to 0.66%. So, the hardnosed reality is that it is more than likely that the worse is yet to come. We can only hope that this is the worst case scenario.
Even if we reduce the risk percentage from 20% to 5%, and maintain the other ratios, there will still be between 27 and 623 deaths. As of today, there’s 14 deaths. But rumours are abound that the number of deaths is higher and not being disclosed (probably can’t be 100% attributed to AH1N1).
The problem is that many people are going to hospitals when having sore throats, flu,fever, cough, stomach ache, vomitting, body pain, breathing difficulties – symptoms that can be caused by a variety of ailments. The hospitals say that one must have been exposed to AH1N1 conditions (travelled overseas or in contact with a victim), and have fever about 38 degrees celcius, besides having the above symptoms. I’ve read the papers for last 3 days whereby readers write in and complain on being refused throat swabs for AH1N1.
Its a winless situation because the medicine is limited, and taking it as a preemptive step will render the medication useless when you actually get infected. There’s too many cases to test.
Should people who have such symptoms stay at home? I’m sure they won’t mind, but who’s going to pay their salary? Companies won’t simply accept the reason that you “may” have AH1N1 and thus are going to stay at home. Do you want to use your annual leave? Can doctors at clinic give a 5 day MC? Will it be unpaid leave? Knowing Malaysians, they rather go to work shivering in fever as long as can get salary.Such is the hardworking mentality (what to do..cost of living too high!).
So, what does the DG of Health Ministry mean when he says you should stay at home?
