Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email Other than our media (Malaysiakini, The Star) who report live from site, I found two blogs running live commentaries on the situation in Perak. You guys can visit Anil Netto and delCapo.
Blogs reporting live from Perak SUK
/* March 3rd, 2009 by poobalan | View blog reactions No comments » Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email
Perak turned into playground
/* March 2nd, 2009 by poobalan | View blog reactions No comments » Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email Perak’s situation is getting worse. I suspect one of two things tomorrow – court ruling in favor of UMNO or ISA being used against the PR EXCOs, especially Sivakumar, Ngeh, and Nizar. Zambry already mentioned the magic words – “threat to national security”. Indeed, Malaysiakini article outlines few possible scenarios:
Scenario 1
As it stands now, the most likely scenario would be for Sivakumar to conduct his meeting as planned and get the motions passed and then submit them to the Sultan of Perak for further action.
It is still uncertain though if the sultan will accede to the wishes of the Pakatan representatives and agree to dissolve the state assembly. The sultan has made his views clear on this matter by appointing Zambry as the new menteri besar on Feb 6.
Scenario 2
Perak BN, or the new menteri besar, can go to court and get an injunction against the emergency meeting. This is very likely to happen later today.
However, it has been a convention for our courts not to interfere in the functioning of the state assemblies.
“The courts tend to uphold the principles of separations of power in that they are on par with the legislative and executive,” noted constitutional expert Prof Aziz Bari.
Still, in the current political climate, it would be unwise to discount the possibility of judicial activism.
If such an injunction is granted, it would automatically mean that the emergency sitting of the state assembly tomorrow cannot proceed.
The Pakatan government or the speaker can try to revoke the injunction by appealing against it in court, triggering a long drawn out legal process.
It must be noted the Kuala Lumpur High Court is also set to hear tomorrow an application by Nizar on the legality of Zambry’s appointment as the menteri besar.
Scenario 3
Another legal aspect which Zambry can contemplate is to seek a court order to allow him, his exco members as well as the three BN-friendly independents to attend the meeting tomorrow.
In such a situation, the two motions can be defeated by BN, with the help of the three defectors.
The downside to this is that the speaker can appeal for a court ruling stating that he is the final authority on matters of state assembly.
Apart from his suspension of Zambry and the six exco members, the speaker can also point out that the status of the three independent representatives were questionable as he has received their resignation letters and had declared their seats as vacant.
This situation will also cause a legal imbroglio with no swift solution in sight.
Scenario 4
The Perak BN, which is the ruling party as per the sultan’s appointment, can order all civil servants and legislative assembly staff not to cooperate with Sivakumar and the Pakatan faction.
Doors to the assembly can then be kept shut and assembly officers may refuse to perform their duties. [Update – at 4pm, a state government circular was issued stating that the complex where the state assembly is located will be closed tomorrow].
If such a scenario arises, the speaker has the powers to declare another place as the venue for the emergency sitting and conduct the meeting there.
Even Nizar’s new official residence can be converted to function as a state assembly.
Scenario 5
The best the BN can then do to stop the meeting – and this is the least likely thing to happen – is to seek the dissolution of the state assembly, paving way for a snap state election.
The BN was against this option at the outset of the crisis, perhaps fearing that it would not be able to win.
Federal measures to ponder
Apart from the scenarios above, there are two other measures which can be taken by the federal government to save its rule in Perak.However it must be said that both these measures would be highly unpopular, especially with BN facing three by-elections next month, with one in Perak.
Incoming Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak, who is also the BN and Perak Umno chief, will have to be down to his last chips if he agrees to these two measures.
And what are they?
- First, the BN government can instruct the police to arrest Perak Pakatan leaders under the Internal Security Act in the next 24 hours, thus making it impossible for the emergency meeting to take place. High on the list of potential detainees would be Sivakumar, Nizar and his exco members.
- Secondly, the federal government can declare emergency in Perak to invoke direct federal rule in the state. In such cases, the state will be placed under the National Operations Council. This is not a new phenomenon as the BN federal government had done it previously in Kelantan in 1977, in a situation very similar to Perak today where an incumbent menteri besar refused to leave office.
These two scenarios are not totally ludicrous and has been mentioned by the Pakatan leaders as well, the most recent being PAS vice-president Husam Musa.
The next 48 hours look set to be an important phase in the Perak political landscape.
By the end of tomorrow, the constitutional crisis roiling the state could either be clearer or the events can take another nasty turn for the worse.
Note: the order to close State building’s front entrance was removed yesterday evening, but its status and effect is unknown.
However, I also wonder if the state secretariat can take unilateral decision to close the main entrance and can the police stop assemblymen from entering the assembly hall. The unsigned notice says the main entrance will be closed, but its still a working day. Technically, assemblymen can enter the secretariat. So, will police arrest any PR assemblyman who tries to enter the premises? Was the Sultan consulted on this move?
Sivakumar, possibly the most famous man in the country now, faces new legal suits lodged by UMNO’s legal team. The cases will be heard tomorrow at the earliest.
It is bleak for PR. The state secretary, the police, and the courts may all favor against them. They may even join Uthaya in Kamunting if federal government decides to step in directly.
Time to rest. It will be a treacherous day tomorrow.
Uthaya being treated at hospital says minister
/* March 2nd, 2009 by poobalan | View blog reactions No comments » Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email Two questions here:
1. If Uthaya is being treated at Teluk Intan hospital, why wasn’t it announced earlier before the gathering to do mass police report?
2. Is the treatment suitable and sufficient, with independent observers being present? I think to avoid any misconception and unnecessary anger of the community against the government, there should be some independent verification.
Perhaps Dr S Subra should follow up on Syed Hamid’s information to verify if indeed Uthaya is being given appropriate treatment for his complications.
Internal Security Act detainee P. Uthayakumar is being treated for his illness at a government hospital, Human Resources Minister Datuk Dr S. Subramaniam said yesterday.
He was speaking after receiving RM170,000 from donors for the purchase of a building that will house an education centre under the administration of the Malacca Indians Development Association.
“It is the right of each and every Malaysian to be treated at the government hospital and in Uthayakumar’s case, I was informed by Home Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar that he has been receiving treatment at the Teluk Intan Hospital,” he said.
Dr Subramaniam said he hoped that the government would make arrangements should Uthayakumar need specialist treatment for his diabetes-afflicted foot.
He was commenting on Uthayakumar’s supporters lodging police reports over alleged improper medical treatment for his diabetic complications and the use of water cannon to disperse about 200 of them near the Brickfields police station on Saturday.
Dr Subramaniam said: “I just want the public to be aware that the government is giving medical treatment to Uthayakumar. If the need arises, I hope that the government will grant him permission to seek treatment at a specialist centre.”
Muthu cries foul over nomination threats
/* March 2nd, 2009 by poobalan | View blog reactions No comments » Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email With less than 3 weeks to nomination day, MIC president hopeful Muthupalaniappan is having problems getting nominations. He claims that branch chairpersons were being threatened not to nominate him. However he aims to persevere and hopes to be nominated. We wonder if his wishes will come true…
He said some leaders in the party were threatening the branch chairpersons not to nominate him for the top post or their branches would face closure for various reasons.
“All sorts of threats are being used. These underhand tactics are to ensure that I do not receive enough number of nominations to fight for the president’s post. If the election is not fair, then there is no point in contesting,” he told Bernama.
Under the party constitution, a presidential aspirant needs to obtain 50 nominations, and each nomination must have one proposer and five seconders, to be eligible to contest. All proposers and seconders must be branch chairpersons.
The MIC president will be picked by some 3,700 branch chairpersons nationwide. The party has fixed March 22 for the presidential nomination while polling is slated for April 12.
Quashing speculation that he would pull out of the contest, Muthupalaniappan said: “There is a lot of speculation that I will not stand but I will and shall contest.”
“They are trying to stop me by stopping people from nominating me,” he said, without disclosing any names.
“There is no level playing field. They have postponed the annual general meetings of some branches that supported me, especially in Negeri Sembilan, so that my supporters would be ineligible to vote.
“But there are branch leaders who are signing nominations for me…although many are scared of repercussions from the powers that be,” Muthupalaniappan said.
The 68-year-old politician from Seremban hoped that the branch leaders would act according to the aspirations of the 600,000 MIC members and the community, which wanted to see change in the MIC top leadership.
He also claimed that some MIC division leaders and state chairpersons, who were supposed to be returning officers in the presidential elections, were involved in campaigning.
“Under the party constitution, division leaders and state chairmen are returning officers of the presidential election.
“If they are returning officers, they should not be allowed to campaign in the election. It is like the Election Commission campaigning in an election. That is wrong,” he added.
I always wondered how long….
/* March 2nd, 2009 by poobalan | View blog reactions No comments » Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email Blog had some problem today. Not sure why but could not view the pages since morning till evening. Must be some corrupted file. Anyway, its back to normal by itself now.
Coming back to the topic of this posting, I read an interesting article last Thursday. You know, I always wondered how long should one keep their shares (as in share market shares). My question was answered by investment advisor Ooi Kok Hwa via his article “How Long Should Investors Hold Their Stock Investments?” The article is below:
OFTEN we hear some financial experts say we need to hold stocks long term, especially during the weak stock market situation like what we are experiencing currently.
Some gurus say the “buy and hold” strategy is the best investment strategy. However, some retail investors may argue that “buy and hold” is not suitable in Malaysia because if they pick the wrong stocks, some companies might even get delisted after a while.
The question of how long to hold has always been on the mind of investors when they purchase any stocks. Given the present weak economic and stock market conditions, some investors may lose patience as they do not know when the market will recover again.
In this article, we will look at the number of years that we need to hold our stock investments in Malaysia. We use the KL Composite Index average daily indices to compute the stock returns.
The following data was provided by Dynaquest Sdn Bhd. With its permission, we will provide the historical rolling annual compounded returns from 1970 to 2008.
The table shows the rolling historical annual compounded returns for holding the stocks for one, three, five, seven and 10 years.
It shows the average annual compounded returns and risks (measured by standard deviation) regardless of any starting or ending dates.
For example, the 25% returns in the second row and the second column of the table was the annual compounded returns of investing for one year from 1970 to 1971. The three-year returns of 56.7% was what you would’ve got if you started your investment in 1970 and ended in 1973.
If you started investing in 1970 and held it for five years (up to 1975), seven years (up to 1977) and 10 years (up to 1980), your annual compounded returns will be 16%, 14% and 21.8% respectively.
In terms of the overall average returns, except for one-year and three-year holding periods of 13.4% and 9.8% respectively, we notice that the annual compounded returns for five-year, seven-year and 10-year holding periods were almost the same, about 8% per annum.
However, the longer we hold our investment, the lower the risks that we face, which are measured by using standard deviations.
For example, if we hold our investment for one year, the standard deviation is 30.8%.
However, if we hold it a bit longer to three, five and seven years, the standard deviation will drop to 16.8%, 11.4% and 8.6% respectively.
For 10-year holding, the standard deviation is 6.6%. Based on two standard deviations, we are 95% confident that our returns will range from -5.1% (8.1% – 2 x 6.6%) to 21.3% (8.1% + 2 x 6.6%).
This is supported by the minimum returns of -2% and the maximum return of 23.6% for 10-year holding periods.
In conclusion, we need to hold stocks long term. We may not need to hold them up to 10 years.
However, we need to understand that we will face very high volatility on returns if we invest only for one year.
Besides, we need to make sure that we are buying good fundamental stocks in order to avoid poor quality stocks that are not suitable for long-term investment.
