Posts Tagged ‘MIC’

Hulu Selangor by-election analysis

April 25th, 2010
|  Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email


Just as I thought from the beginning, BN wins back this seat with 1,725 majority, overturning a 198 vote deficit in GE 2008 (1725+198 = 1923 swing). The official count is BN  24,997 votes against PKR 23,272.

The voter turnout was higher than in GE 2008 as well, a total of 48,935 voters out of the total 64,500 voters or 75.87 per cent have cast their ballots compared to about 75.24% (47,622 voters; 1466 spoilt votes) in GE 2008. There’s an increase of 1,313 voters with about 731 spoilt votes. [note: a report says 1003 new voters. Need to update this article once details are confirmed]

Let’s look at the results first. The majority is much less than the KPI set by DPM Muhyiddin (6000 votes) and less than the 3000 votes predicted by Ibrahim Ali (yeah, that fella!). It is nearly 9 times the majority of the previous election result (198 vs 1725). However its about 3.5% of the total votes only, so not exactly a significant majority. However, as some may point out, it can be an endorsement of PM Najib’s leadership since he called it a referendum of his leadership.

Most interestingly, 37.5% of the winning votes came from postal voters! Yup, BN got 767 while PKR got 120 (spoilt votes 89).

Postal votes: 647

new votes (compared to GE 2008): (1313-731[spoilt vote]) = 582

= 1,229

Effectively, there’s only a difference of 496 (1725-1229) votes + 198 vote swinging back, which is 694 votes.   So, I’ll say its still a dicey win for BN, and in a way, Pakatan has done quick OK to reduce the loss. However, a win is still a win and BN will do well to work on this victory in Sibu and future elections.

Pakatan failed to get the intended results from the Chinese and Indian community to offset the expected loss of votes in Malay areas.

PKR’s Fuziah’s views:

“According to our figures, the voter turnout in the Felda areas were a little less than 70 per cent. The Chinese that came out to vote were only about 75 per cent and for the Indian voters, the turnout in the estates were lower than those in the towns. For the Malays, only about 70 per cent turned out,” said Fuziah.

Let’s look at some of the stream results provided by Malaysiakini:

… BN has won big in Malay-majority areas, especially the Felda settlements. While PKR has won the Chinese-majority areas, but its margin of victory in these areas is not big enough to compensate its loss in the Malay-majority area.

… PKR has won all Chinese-majority areas, while at the same time losing allMalay-majority areas.

According the ‘saluran’ results, young voters have voted overwhelmingly for Pakatan.

In addition, it appears that Indian voters have generally return to BN’s fold.

Early results show PKR winning two-thirds of the votes in Chinese-majority areas, below the 85 percent which DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang has wanted. According to Lim, PKR will need to win that much to win.

Most of the Chinese-majority areas have been counted, with PKR leading by 1,226 votes. About 30 percent of the votes counted.

6.37pm: On-the-spot analysis

According to early results, PKR is leading by a wide margin in Chinese areas and by a slight margin in mixed areas and is trailing behind BN in Malay areas.

For PKR to win, it needs to win big in Chinese and mixed areas to cover its expected loss in Malay areas.

6.34pm: Unofficial results

Kg Baru Cina KKB (Chinese area), saluran 2 – PKR 203, BN 77
Kg Baru Cina KKB (Chinese area), saluran 4 – PKR 256, BN 73
Kg Baru Cina KKB (Chinese area), saluran 1 – PKR 207, BN 56

Unofficial – PKR 666, BN 206

6.29pm: Unofficial results (PKR 2,972, BN 2,259)

Bandar Kuala Kubu Bahru (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 135, BN 82
Bandar Kuala Kubu Bahru (mixed area), saluran 2 – PKR 272, BN 212
Bandar Kuala Kubu Bahru (mixed area), saluran 3 – PKR 490, BN 205

Unofficial – PKR 897, BN 499

6.23pm: Unofficial results

Kg Baru Batang Kali (Chinese area), saluran 1- PKR 220, BN 58
Hulu Yam Barat (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 205, BN 184
Ampang Pecah (Malay area), saluran 5 – PKR 148, BN 216
Hulu Yam Barat (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 224, BN 168
Kg Gumut (Malay area), saluran 1 – PKR 104, BN 172 

Unofficial – PKR 901, BN 798

6.18pm: Unofficial results

Kg Sungai Tengi Selatan (Malay Felda), saluran 1 – PKR 62, BN 176
Kuala Kalumpang (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 98, BN 128
Kg Baru Rasa (Chinese area), saluran 1 – PKR 301, BN 75
Kg Bahru Kerling (Chinese area), saluran 1 – PKR 268, BN 122 

Unofficial – PKR 729, BN 501

6.13pm: Unofficial results

Kuala Kalumpang, saluran 1 – PKR 98, BN 128
Ulu Yam Barat, saluran 1 – PKR 171, BN 94
Kg Bharu Kerling, saluran 1 – PKR 172, BN 83
Pertak Bukit Fraser – PKR 22, BN 15
Pertak, saluran 2 – PKR 18, BN 98
Ampang Pecah, saluran 1 – PKR 105, BN 155

Unofficial – PKR 491, BN 445

As mentioned above, the support from non–Malays was not enough to offset the lesser support from Malay community.

OK, the reason for the results can be various factors, some of which I list below. I’m sure the political experts will do a more detailed analysis later.

– change of voter polling station (causing confusion)

– goodies from BN for FELDA, Chinese community, and Indian community (calculated to be nearly RM60 million worth in total. UPDATE: one Chinese newspaper says its RM167 million!)

– goodies from PR for the local communities (not enough?)

– postal voters (37.5% of the majority comes from here!)

– BN candidate approach versus Pakatan candidate approach

– Personal attack on Pakatan candidate which affected Muslim votes

– Lack of support from PAS from start

– Impact of PM Najib’s 1Malaysia

– lack of interest in “national issues” by voters

– better BN election machinery to handle rural area

– Personal visit by PM Najib

– Kg Buah Pala residents campaign

– Hindraf non-support

– MAIKA news and Samy Vellu’s departure in 14 months

– string of defections in Pakatan Rakyat camp in Perak, Kelantan, Selangor etc.

I wondered earlier if having another Indian MP in the Dewan Rakyat will bring any difference to the Indian community. Would Kamalanathan highlight community problems, something which all the other MPs failed to do in last 2 years? I don’t think so. He will be governed by the BN system and have “work” the system. Hopefully more issues can be solved with the additional MIC man.

Well, congrats to Mr Kamalanathan, hopefully God gives him the wisdom to do the right things and serve his constituency to best of his ability. As for Zaid Ibrahim, better luck next time.

On to Sibu then! 🙂

After a Cabinet Committee, we have a Taskforce

April 24th, 2010
|  Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email


I’m sure readers will remember the cabinet committee set up in 2008 to solve problems among the Indian community. Well, recently, a task force was set up as well, headed by Dr Subra, the HR minister. Its known as the Special Implementation Taskforce which will be reporting to the cabinet committee. Its purpose is “to monitor and strengthen service delivery and implementation to ensure that poor and low-income Indians take part in government programmes”.
Tamil Nesan reported that the Prime Minister’s Office will monitor efforts to help the poor and low-income groups in the Indian community through a taskforce.
It said the taskforce would ensure that the groups could benefit from the Government’s efforts to help them in poverty eradication programmes, getting affordable housing and participating in educational programmes.
Dr Denison Jayasooria has been appointed secretary of the task force while Human Resources Minister Datuk Dr S. Subrama­niam, who is also a member of the Cabinet Committee on Indian affairs, would head the task force.
He said the formation of the task force proved the Government’s commitment in assisting the community.
I hope the taskforce will come out with regular reports to indicate what they have done.

How much money do you save each month?

April 20th, 2010
|  Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email


Some of us may have had parents in the similar situation as below about 30-40 years ago.  I think back then, people could scrimp and still survive, and hopefully try to provide a better living for their kids. But in current high cost of living, is it possible to save something for the future, let alone spend for children’s education, good food, or invest in own house?

Which brings me to the question: how much do you save every month in terms of percentage of your income (either individual or household)? Is it 0%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 30% or high as 60%? Do you have a saving plan that you follow or its an ad-hoc kind of thing?  How much do you think you should save every month in terms of absolute amount? RM100? RM200? RM500? Rm1000?

Why do you save money? I guess its for use in the future – buying house, children education, retirement, buying luxury/dream stuff, medical cover, for emergency, and so on.

Don’t worry, I’m not going to preach about some savings/investment scheme 🙂 Just blogged about this out of curiosity.  I’m sure all of us have bills to pay, loans to settle, transport costs, communication expenses and so on. Money just flies out so easily.

Well, read the article I mentioned and think about the poorer section of our community.

Extract of an article from Malaysiakini:

Clutching her payslip for the previous month in her right hand and a paring knife in her left, S Letchumi rants about how tough life is on the estate where she has lived for 25 years,

She points at the RM217 take-home pay printed on her payslip, agonising over her family’s monthly trials with three children in secondary school and two sets of sickly parents to care for, not to mention putting food on the table.

“We have supported Barisan (Nasional) for so long. Every time they come here they tell us to vote for them, they promise they will help us. But after they win, they never show their faces here until they need our votes again,” she said, absent-mindedly brandishing her knife.

Letchumi, 42, and a group of women in Ladang Kerling were getting ready to cook food brought in by Puteri Umno in time for a 4pm gathering scheduled at their temple on Monday.

Mariamah Subramaniam, 39 and a single mother of four, said the workers don’t mind the “gifts” that political parties normally bring while campaigning, but that they would much rather have a concrete solution to their poverty.

“It’s nice. PKR gave us some help with rice and some money for our children’s bus fare, but they can’t just give this year and stop giving after that. Of course it’s better than nothing… BN didn’t give us a single thing when they came,” she said, bouncing her nine-month-old daughter on her hip.

Depending on the weather, estate workers say they can earn as much as RM890 in a good month or as low as RM100 when the rains come.

Second-generation estate retiree Ragaraman Kolican, 58, is still poor after tapping rubber for 29 years, and not for lack of trying.

“I was born here. I grew up here. I continued to work the estate after my father died, but with my earnings being so low, I can’t afford to buy anything, not a house, not land.

“This whole area was 100 percent BN for a long time. In the past, even if you say you will cut our throats, we would still vote BN. But the BN politicians never keep their promises. 

“Palanivel held the seat for so long and every election he told us he will listen to all our problems after he wins, but he never came,” he said, referring to former four-term Hulu Selangor parliamentarian G Palanivel, who lost the seat to PKR in 2008.

No love for MIC

Thirumurthy Appalanaidu (left), 48, admitted that the estate workers know little of BN candidate P Kamalanathan but stressed that they have already made up their minds.

“We are not angry with (premier) Najib (Abdul Razak), but we know very well that MIC has not done anything for us.

“We read the news, we know that Najib announced (allocations of) millions (of ringgit) to help the poor but when the money reaches MIC it does not go down to the people.”

Thirumurthy added that PKR has done more for them over the last two years than the BN has over the decades that it held Hulu Selangor.

“If BN had helped us we can vote for them, but without helping us how do we vote for them?” he asked.

Kamalanathan supports Perkasa while Zaid admits to drinking

April 19th, 2010
|  Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email


Well, not exactly prime materials are they? I guess Kamalanathan earned the wrath of the Indian community (and probably the Chinese as well), when he reasoned PERKASA’s antics.

“Perkasa has its own role. It is strengthening its (Malay) race, its language and its religion, and we (MIC) are also doing the same by strengthening our race, religion and language,” he stressed.

“Is it wrong for me to want to memperkasakan (empower) my race and my language? Is it wrong for me to want to memperkasakan Tamil schools?” he asked.

Helen Ang tries to examine why he did so and offers a rebuttal. I think there’s a big difference in promoting equality and promoting inequality (which is even against the religions). Sad to say, the candidate is playing to the gallery, but hey, that’s politics. You plan your strategies, and hopefully you get the votes than you need. Obviously you can’t win over all of them.  I managed to catch Kamalanathan shedding few tears while talking to an elderly lady, probably touched by her words (aired on Tamil News and TV3 Buletin Utama). Good PR indeed.

And DPM Muhyiddin made some joke above Kamal, Alan and Nathan. Less said the better.

As for Zaid Ibrahim, well he admits to drinking, and really, one can’t be so naive to think that Malays don’t berkhalwat, consume alcohol or gamble.  They are also human beings, subject to same temptation as other Malaysians. And he said that he won’t squeal on his ex-party member (he mentioned about ministers in Cabinet, so I wonder who else were his drinking buddies, so to speak). And let’s not go into royal issues.

The Pakatan also seemed to made a gaffe by comparing Muslims in Kota Bahru (Zaid was an MP there) and Muslims in “open-minded” Hulu Selangor:

Asked about Opposition claims that the PKR candidate Zaid Ibrahim would be accepted by Muslims in Hulu Selangor as compared to Muslims in Kota Baharu because the former are more open minded, Muhyiddin said Muslims are the same anywhere.

“Their expectations are the same. I leave it to the (Muslim) voters to make their own judgement,” he said.

We can see BN digging more dirt on Zaid, while Kamalanathan is the squeaky clean candidate with a charming smile, bountiful energy, and the single finger (1Malaysia) trademark.  How about the two independents? I wonder if they will spill some beans on MIC and UMNO respectively. Chandran who is ex-MIC from tomorrow onwards already fired salvo against Samy Vellu and Palanivel.

One analysis says if MIC lose this campaign, UMNO will have strong case to take back the seat in GE13. Well, I doubt that because if you take something, you have to give up something elsewhere.

The fiasco and subsequent humiliation of MIC by UMNO is still a talking point (and most likely for years to come).  In rejecting the initial candidate,  and creating headache for MIC, BN has been able to cover itself. If Kamalanathan wins, it will increase the image of PM Najib. If he loses, well MIC will take the fall.

I still say the seat is BN’s to loose, just a gut feeling.

BTW, I heard recently that delineation of electoral seats are made in such way that the Malays are in the majority as much as possible. Its part of the requirements. Any way to verify this? Is it a policy, rule or stated in the laws?

MIC turmoil continues as Kamalanathan is selected

April 15th, 2010
|  Subscribe in a reader | Subscribe to poobalan.com by Email


Rumours of Mugilan and Kamalanathan’s name being proposed were going around since two weeks ago. However, MIC only put for Palanivel’s name. Till yesterday night there was big noises coming from MIC camp – CWC, branches in Hulu Selangor, and divisions in Selangor. But today afternoon saw Palanivel’s name replaced with P.Kamalanathan, the Information Chief of MIC as BN candidate for Hulu Selangor parliamentary seat by-election.

I saw part of his speech on TV just now. Quite spirited and focused on 1Malaysia thing.

“I will work hard.” he said, while thanking the BN leadership including deputy MIC president G. Palanevil for giving him the opportunity to stand as the candidate.

He vowed to take back the federal seat, formerly a BN stronghold, and deliver it to Datuk Seri Najib Razak as gift for his first year in office.

He dismissed speculation there was unhappiness by factions in MIC, who were unhappy with his nomination, and expressed confidence that he has the support of BN.

“I represent BN, I represent the brand of 1 Malaysia.”

He described himself as a soldier called into battle by the prime minister and said he was up for the challenge.

He added that he never expected to be nominated and was “shocked”, and “had shed tears” when informed by the party’s president at noon today.

He declined to comment on his political opponent from PKR but said he was ready to take to the ground and tell the people about the development opportunities BN could bring.

His BM and English is good, being from the younger generation. I’ve actually met him few times in some bloggers event and also at the Ponggal festival. I don’t know him personally so can’t say much, but he seems to be a nice focused guy. Anyway, nice or not nice doesn’t matter when in a political party as personal believes and ideals have to be sacrificed for party sake (unless you are Chew Mei Fun). He still maintains his blog, and also active in Facebook and Twitter. A bit on Kamalananthan:

Kamalanathan, 44, is a public relations expert [his is currently attached to Beras Jati), and is married to S. Shobana, a senior public relations manager at a private hospital.

He started his career as a clerk and later became a public relations officer with the Malaysian Palm Oil Promotion Council for six years.

He has a certificate in PR from the London Chambers of Commerce and Industry and a diploma in language translation and Bachelor in Mass Communications degree from Edith Cowan University in Australia.

Kamalanathan was a Selayang municipal councillor from 2004 to 2006 and the national co-ordinator for Putera MIC and party information chief since last year.

Within a span of 7 years, he has made it to be a candidate. Well done.

Anyway, if MIC members sabotage Kamalanathan, then he stands a very slim chance of winning. But not a problem as he will be renominated for GE13 as part of the newcomers.

Some interesting stories going around, including about the whole fiasco being planned in order to actually remove Palanivel so that new bloods can slowly move in and rejuvenate MIC (or so it is said). Time will only tell.

As for Samy and Palanivel, read this info from Malaysian Insider:

Samy Vellu had been saying “either Palanivel or nothing” right up to last night when he called an emergency party central working committee meeting and convinced its 35 members to unanimously back Palanivel as the candidate.

He had said MIC was ready to give the seat to Umno if Palanivel was dropped.

This morning he met Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin who told him that Palanivel was a no go.

Umno feels strongly that the Hulu Selangor grassroots, irrespective of race, was set against Palanivel, a hard working and clean man, but colourless and cold to ordinary people.

Public perception ruined him and his rejection in the constituency he headed for 20 years was borne out by numerous straw polls.

Samy Vellu informed Palanivel of the bad news, and toyed with either party secretary-general S. Murugesan or Kamalanathan as a replacement.

He eventually picked Kamalanathan (picture), who has the support of vice-president Datuk Dr S. Subramaniam and his son Vel Paari and the backing of the Dewar clan which controls the MIC.

Samy Vellu’s decision to back off after putting up a strong front has roiled the MIC CWC, with members already angry with the party president for failing to keep his word.

A campaign has already been started to ask Samy Vellu to take responsibility and resign.

But Samy Vellu told the CWC last night he would not resign as president.

Samy Vellu had strongly objected to MIC Youth deputy chief V. Mugilan, the preferred Umno candidate.

He argued that Mugilan betrayed the MIC by backstabbing Palanivel and the party.

Samy Vellu also offered the seat to Umno if Palanivel was not chosen, but Muhyiddin did not take the bait as it would have gone down badly among Indian voters.

There is talk of an offer to the slighted Palanivel to be appointed a senator and later made a deputy minister as a reward for his backing of Kamalanathan. But his aides say he will reject the offer.

His political career is in great doubt after this setback, although he remains deputy party president.

Muhyiddin and Samy are still confident (but i have learnt not to believe such talks):

But the tussle between the MIC and Umno has bruised the ruling coalition, with many members from BN’s main Indian party still seething with unhappiness over the development.

“He is a workaholic, straightforward, one who means what he says.

“He’s the only candidate. There is no candidate but him,” Muhyiddin said of Kamalanathan as a smiling Samy Vellu flanked him.

In his speech to over 1,500 BN members, Muhyiddin attempted to heal the rift caused by the tussle and showered praises on Samy Vellu and Palanivel.

“Even in my sleep, I see Samy Vellu’s face. He is a great man,” he quipped.

He explained that Palanivel was not chosen to contest because voters wanted a new face, saying that BN recognised his contribution to Hulu Selangor over the years.

“We have to give credit when it is due.”

Palanivel did not attend the nomination and Muhyiddin, at a press conference later, said it could be because the MIC deputy president had other things to do or was disappointed.

“That’s a normal human emotion but it won’t stay that way for long,” he said, adding that he hoped Palanivel will help the BN campaign and win the by-election.

Samy Vellu was also in a reconciliatory mood when he spoke to reporters.

“I promised the deputy prime minister that he will say everything. Today we are listeners and will stay behind and listen to his commands and directives to ensure absolute victory.”

He said Kamalanathan was a candidate who the PM had approved and who the party had accepted, when asked by reporters if the MIC had compromised on its earlier stand.

Samy Vellu added there would be no problems with local MIC branches which earlier had threaten to “close down” if Palanivel was not nominated to stand for the by-election.

“It will be OK, I have rung them up,” he said, adding that the branches would campaign so long as the candidate was from the MIC.

Asked if he feared that there would be sabotage due to unhappiness on the ground over Kamalanathan’s nomination, he replied: “They normally don’t.”

“We have not learnt the art yet” he said.

All in all, this have been a severe insult for MIC in the eyes of public. Maybe its some scheme by MIC folks that worked in order to bring in a new person and at same time offer something to Palanivel (Deputy Minister post??? wow…), but in reality, the integrity and morality of MIC have been tarnished since they were standing firmly behind Palanivel until willing to boycott or even dissolve branches.

Pakatan will still be under dogs even with a novice opponent from BN because Kamalanathan has the might of the federal machinery behind him. And Pakatan also facing more crisis as another ADUN just quit the party (Bakar Arang ADUN Tan Wei Shu).

BN to win, unless something goes wrong.