Just as I thought from the beginning, BN wins back this seat with 1,725 majority, overturning a 198 vote deficit in GE 2008 (1725+198 = 1923 swing). The official count is BN  24,997 votes against PKR 23,272.

The voter turnout was higher than in GE 2008 as well, a total of 48,935 voters out of the total 64,500 voters or 75.87 per cent have cast their ballots compared to about 75.24% (47,622 voters; 1466 spoilt votes) in GE 2008. There’s an increase of 1,313 voters with about 731 spoilt votes. [note: a report says 1003 new voters. Need to update this article once details are confirmed]

Let’s look at the results first. The majority is much less than the KPI set by DPM Muhyiddin (6000 votes) and less than the 3000 votes predicted by Ibrahim Ali (yeah, that fella!). It is nearly 9 times the majority of the previous election result (198 vs 1725). However its about 3.5% of the total votes only, so not exactly a significant majority. However, as some may point out, it can be an endorsement of PM Najib’s leadership since he called it a referendum of his leadership.

Most interestingly, 37.5% of the winning votes came from postal voters! Yup, BN got 767 while PKR got 120 (spoilt votes 89).

Postal votes: 647

new votes (compared to GE 2008): (1313-731[spoilt vote]) = 582

= 1,229

Effectively, there’s only a difference of 496 (1725-1229) votes + 198 vote swinging back, which is 694 votes.   So, I’ll say its still a dicey win for BN, and in a way, Pakatan has done quick OK to reduce the loss. However, a win is still a win and BN will do well to work on this victory in Sibu and future elections.

Pakatan failed to get the intended results from the Chinese and Indian community to offset the expected loss of votes in Malay areas.

PKR’s Fuziah’s views:

“According to our figures, the voter turnout in the Felda areas were a little less than 70 per cent. The Chinese that came out to vote were only about 75 per cent and for the Indian voters, the turnout in the estates were lower than those in the towns. For the Malays, only about 70 per cent turned out,” said Fuziah.

Let’s look at some of the stream results provided by Malaysiakini:

… BN has won big in Malay-majority areas, especially the Felda settlements. While PKR has won the Chinese-majority areas, but its margin of victory in these areas is not big enough to compensate its loss in the Malay-majority area.

… PKR has won all Chinese-majority areas, while at the same time losing allMalay-majority areas.

According the ‘saluran’ results, young voters have voted overwhelmingly for Pakatan.

In addition, it appears that Indian voters have generally return to BN’s fold.

Early results show PKR winning two-thirds of the votes in Chinese-majority areas, below the 85 percent which DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang has wanted. According to Lim, PKR will need to win that much to win.

Most of the Chinese-majority areas have been counted, with PKR leading by 1,226 votes. About 30 percent of the votes counted.

6.37pm: On-the-spot analysis

According to early results, PKR is leading by a wide margin in Chinese areas and by a slight margin in mixed areas and is trailing behind BN in Malay areas.

For PKR to win, it needs to win big in Chinese and mixed areas to cover its expected loss in Malay areas.

6.34pm: Unofficial results

Kg Baru Cina KKB (Chinese area), saluran 2 – PKR 203, BN 77
Kg Baru Cina KKB (Chinese area), saluran 4 – PKR 256, BN 73
Kg Baru Cina KKB (Chinese area), saluran 1 – PKR 207, BN 56

Unofficial – PKR 666, BN 206

6.29pm: Unofficial results (PKR 2,972, BN 2,259)

Bandar Kuala Kubu Bahru (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 135, BN 82
Bandar Kuala Kubu Bahru (mixed area), saluran 2 – PKR 272, BN 212
Bandar Kuala Kubu Bahru (mixed area), saluran 3 – PKR 490, BN 205

Unofficial – PKR 897, BN 499

6.23pm: Unofficial results

Kg Baru Batang Kali (Chinese area), saluran 1- PKR 220, BN 58
Hulu Yam Barat (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 205, BN 184
Ampang Pecah (Malay area), saluran 5 – PKR 148, BN 216
Hulu Yam Barat (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 224, BN 168
Kg Gumut (Malay area), saluran 1 – PKR 104, BN 172 

Unofficial – PKR 901, BN 798

6.18pm: Unofficial results

Kg Sungai Tengi Selatan (Malay Felda), saluran 1 – PKR 62, BN 176
Kuala Kalumpang (mixed area), saluran 1 – PKR 98, BN 128
Kg Baru Rasa (Chinese area), saluran 1 – PKR 301, BN 75
Kg Bahru Kerling (Chinese area), saluran 1 – PKR 268, BN 122 

Unofficial – PKR 729, BN 501

6.13pm: Unofficial results

Kuala Kalumpang, saluran 1 – PKR 98, BN 128
Ulu Yam Barat, saluran 1 – PKR 171, BN 94
Kg Bharu Kerling, saluran 1 – PKR 172, BN 83
Pertak Bukit Fraser – PKR 22, BN 15
Pertak, saluran 2 – PKR 18, BN 98
Ampang Pecah, saluran 1 – PKR 105, BN 155

Unofficial – PKR 491, BN 445

As mentioned above, the support from non–Malays was not enough to offset the lesser support from Malay community.

OK, the reason for the results can be various factors, some of which I list below. I’m sure the political experts will do a more detailed analysis later.

– change of voter polling station (causing confusion)

– goodies from BN for FELDA, Chinese community, and Indian community (calculated to be nearly RM60 million worth in total. UPDATE: one Chinese newspaper says its RM167 million!)

– goodies from PR for the local communities (not enough?)

– postal voters (37.5% of the majority comes from here!)

– BN candidate approach versus Pakatan candidate approach

– Personal attack on Pakatan candidate which affected Muslim votes

– Lack of support from PAS from start

– Impact of PM Najib’s 1Malaysia

– lack of interest in “national issues” by voters

– better BN election machinery to handle rural area

– Personal visit by PM Najib

– Kg Buah Pala residents campaign

– Hindraf non-support

– MAIKA news and Samy Vellu’s departure in 14 months

– string of defections in Pakatan Rakyat camp in Perak, Kelantan, Selangor etc.

I wondered earlier if having another Indian MP in the Dewan Rakyat will bring any difference to the Indian community. Would Kamalanathan highlight community problems, something which all the other MPs failed to do in last 2 years? I don’t think so. He will be governed by the BN system and have “work” the system. Hopefully more issues can be solved with the additional MIC man.

Well, congrats to Mr Kamalanathan, hopefully God gives him the wisdom to do the right things and serve his constituency to best of his ability. As for Zaid Ibrahim, better luck next time.

On to Sibu then! 🙂